Verdict: Misleading
On Saturday, several social media users as seen across X (formerly twitter) and TikTok shared posts showing a cover page of the New Vision suggesting that the media had run an article with a headline, “ Bobiwine leads in new opinion poll”.
The screenshot of the page went viral and suggested that Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobiwine, who is the flagbearer for the opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) party would score 64.8% of the vote if the election was held today. The screenshot also bears the image of incumbent President Yoweri Museveni, flagbearer of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) scoring 27.2% in the opinion poll.
The two candidates who are competing with six other candidates for presidency in the election scheduled for 15 January 2026 have been seen to attract the biggest crowds in ongoing political campaigns around the country.
However, while the two are the top competitors, New Vision has not run an opinion poll putting Bobiwine in the lead. The cover story of the New Vision issue of Saturday 29 November 2025, instead shows, the opinion poll put Museveni in the lead with 64.8%. Details in the newspaper shows respondents were asked, which presidential candidate would you vote for?
This opinion poll story has had a lot of people reacting, some agreeing with the poll and yet others disagreeing with it. Some suggested instead to conduct an online poll to compare results with what the New Vision put across.
Meanwhile, opinion polls are a common ingredient in an election and they often stir debate as pollsters try to gauge public opinion and the trajectory the election is likely to take. Experts say such opinion polls can guide candidates to change strategy to lure more support to themselves.
